Well, here I am. Never thought I would have a blog. I mean, I've got a Livejournal and all, sure. I guess this is more... 'mature'. Anyway, this first entry is a bit grim (and hopefully they all won't be), but it's something that I feel is largely (and naively) ignored. A topic that encompasses everything.
One note: I am not an expert in any of these fields. This is simply some data that I have collected and interpreted in a certain way.
As I'm sure everyone is aware, there is an energy crisis unfolding the likes of which we've not seen ever before. On top of that, there are impending environmental disasters in the works. I'll admit I'm a bit of a "Peak Oil" advocate, but even if you're a skeptic, the evidence is too visible to ignore. I won't go into detail too much about everything (and unfortunately, a lot of my research has been done on Wikipedia, which may be less than accurate information), but I'll give you an idea of why I'm worried about the future.
For one, take the dwindling oil reserves of the world. According to the Department of Energy Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the world, and also has roughly one fifth of the total global reserves. Oil accounts for 44 percent of Saudi Arabia's GDP, and 90% of their export revenues. By 2009, they aim to increase oil production to 12 million barrels a day. However, even in 2004, the United States alone consumed about 20 million barrels. A day. Canada has the second largest proven reserves, which is good because they're a "friend" and they right up there; however, if you look at this graph, you can see that Canada's "conventional" oil production peaked in the '70s. That's readily accessible oil, not including oil sands. Oil sands actually account for 95% of Canada's reserves, but oil sands are notoriously harder to get to. That's partly why they were never extracted before, it was deemed economically unwise.
I also skimmed an article earlier today that touched on the topic of where oil dollars are being invested. As it turns out, oil rich nations (such as the UAE) are increasing their foreign investment. That is to say that they're spending money overseas, buying up all kinds of foreign assets. Of course, economically this is a very sound decision, but the conspiracy theorist in me also thinks that they might know that the petroleum era is drawing to a close, and they're buying up all they can while they've got the scratch. That's a completely unfounded hypothesis, but it's something to think about.
With much hesitation, it seems that a good number of Americans are wising up to this. Unfortunately, we're not the only country in the world that uses oil. China's developing economy is growing at an immense rate; in 2006, China's rate of growth of GDP was 11.1%, over three times that of the United States. Obviously, to fuel this growth, they'll need a vast amount of natural resources, including oil China's oil consumption, if its rate of growth remains constant, is expected to be equal to that of the US (and we are the largest consumer) in the next 15 to 20 years (scroll down to the commentary section). Now of course, this is only a worst case scenario, but I feel that this thirst for oil will draw the US and China to a global standoff within the next 10 or 15 years, 20 tops. It might be called a war on communism, but it'll just be a conflict for dominance over resources. Again, this is the conspiracy theorist talking, but perhaps that's why we're trying to secure as much fuel as we can. If it boils down to war, it will certainly be an ugly one. China's military (active service + reserve) is about 50% larger than that of the United States. It could very well be a war of attrition, with whomever having the largest supply of oil being the victor. It would be truly ironic if, during the course of this hypothetical war, we exhaust all fuel reserves. Think of the massive unemployment of all resources when the petroleum of a petroleum based economy is... well, gone.
China's not the only up and coming economy. India is growing pretty fast as well, but I'll get into that another time.
That's just the energy side of things. Sure, there are newer, "cleaner" sustainable sources of energy, but the sum of those so far isn't enough to solve our problems based on current usages. On top of that, take environmental time bombs like overfishing, overfarming (and related - desertification), overpopulation, decrease of effectiveness of antimicrobial agents, and (of course) global warming. All of this promises that the next few years should be an interesting time to be alive.
I want to try and convey a message to all of my friends. Enjoy what you have while you have it. Even if you look at the most optimistic figures, you can still see that we're heading towards an inevitable energy crisis. Make something of your self. Do something with your life to try and help society. Make less trash, use less energy.
Wash your hands.
